ABSTRACT
Background: Since the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, many models have been applied to understand its epidemiological characteristics. However, the ways in which outbreak data were used in some models are problematic, for example, importation was mixed up with local transmission. Methods: In this study, five models were proposed for the early Shaanxi outbreak in China. We demonstrated how to select a reasonable model and correctly use the outbreak data. Bayesian inference was used to obtain parameter estimates. Results: Model comparison showed that the renewal equation model generates the best model fitting and the Susceptible-Exposed-Diseased-Asymptomatic-Recovered (SEDAR) model is the worst; the performance of the SEEDAR model, which divides the exposure into two stages and includes the pre-symptomatic transmission, and SEEDDAAR model, which further divides infectious classes into two equally, lies in between. The Richards growth model is invalidated by its continuously increasing prediction. By separating continuous importation from local transmission, the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Shaanxi province ranges from 0.45 to 0.61, well below the unit, implying that timely interventions greatly limited contact between people and effectively contained the spread of COVID-19 in Shaanxi. Conclusions: The renewal equation model provides the best modelling; mixing continuous importation with local transmission significantly increases the estimate of transmissibility.
ABSTRACT
A novel coronavirus pneumonia broke out and gradually developed into a global public health problem. Health care workers, especially nurses, suffered from great occupational pressure and psychological distress during the outbreak of infectious diseases. We performed a cross-sectional survey to investigate the psychological status and self-efficacy of nurses in public hospital during COVID-19 outbreak between 16th and 25th February 2020. A total of 223 nurses participated in this study. The prevalence of anxiety and depression symptoms was 40.8% (CI 95%: 34.4%-47.2%) and 26.4% (CI 95%: 20.6%-42.2%), respectively. There was no difference in the prevalence of anxiety symptoms among demographic variables. There was significant differences in the prevalence of depression symptoms according to professional titles (P = .020). The mean score of self-efficacy was 25.90 ± 7.55. The self-efficacy was negatively correlated with anxiety (r = -0.161, P < .05). The psychological status of nurses in public hospital during COVID-19 outbreak needs our attention. Improving nurses' self-efficacy in dealing with emerging infectious diseases may be helpful to their psychology.